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Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong 25 мин How The Fukushima Nuclear Plant Melted Down | Fascinating Horror How The Fukushima Nuclear Plant Melted Down | Fascinating Horror 15 мин SEXTANT SEXTANT 2 мин One Lens to Rule Them All! (and It's Cheap) One Lens to Rule Them All! (and It's Cheap) 9 мин The Hidden Tech Behind an NBA Broadcast! The Hidden Tech Behind an NBA Broadcast! 12 мин Android 17 Is the Biggest Upgrade in Years Android 17 Is the Biggest Upgrade in Years 18 мин MEMORY MANAGEMENT MEMORY MANAGEMENT 4 мин The Strangest Operating System in History | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Strangest Operating System in History | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 мин Wii U: Finale of a Failure (Part III) - Scott The Woz Wii U: Finale of a Failure (Part III) - Scott The Woz 193 мин The Prisoner of Bogan The Prisoner of Bogan 32 мин These Smart Glasses Remember Everything... These Smart Glasses Remember Everything... 9 мин Why Does AI Need Access to the Web? Why Does AI Need Access to the Web? 20 мин Samsung Galaxy Z TriFold Unboxing Samsung Galaxy Z TriFold Unboxing 13 мин What Is the AI Security Trilemma? Smart, Fast, or Secure AI? What Is the AI Security Trilemma? Smart, Fast, or Secure AI? 10 мин E Ink Displays Have Evolved... E Ink Displays Have Evolved... 10 мин The Most Overhyped and Underhyped New AI Models The Most Overhyped and Underhyped New AI Models 27 мин The Mummy 4 (2027) Brendan Fraser & Rachel Weisz The Mummy 4 (2027) Brendan Fraser & Rachel Weisz 9 мин John Rambo (2027) Noah Centineo & James Franco John Rambo (2027) Noah Centineo & James Franco 9 мин The CIA's new tech doesn't make sense The CIA's new tech doesn't make sense 22 мин Hybrid Power Systems! | Real Life Power Armor (Part 4/6) Hybrid Power Systems! | Real Life Power Armor (Part 4/6) 23 мин Turning plastic gloves into grape soda Turning plastic gloves into grape soda 47 мин Would you look at that... Would you look at that... 1 мин The Internet Was Weeks Away From Disaster And No One Knew The Internet Was Weeks Away From Disaster And No One Knew 53 мин When cameras are just too good When cameras are just too good 1 мин An apple laptop for $599 is wild 😂 // Full thoughts on the channel. An apple laptop for $599 is wild 😂 // Full thoughts on the channel. 1 мин This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50 This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50 26 мин You won't believe what’s in this mans pockets You won't believe what’s in this mans pockets 2 мин How to Use YouTube Studio in 2026! (Complete Guide) How to Use YouTube Studio in 2026! (Complete Guide) 19 мин How To Fish - We Caught A Whale How To Fish - We Caught A Whale 25 мин Shot Down Over Iran, The Pardon Economy, Battering Ram | 60 Minutes Full Episodes Shot Down Over Iran, The Pardon Economy, Battering Ram | 60 Minutes Full Episodes 44 мин NPCs in Video Games NPCs in Video Games 13 мин 5 open source tools that replaced my $320/mo AI stack... 5 open source tools that replaced my $320/mo AI stack... 6 мин Can I buy a beer in "Beeropolis" using only money found on the floor on the way there? Can I buy a beer in "Beeropolis" using only money found on the floor on the way there? 41 мин BAT-GARAGE Tour + BAT-SIGNAL Restoration (MEMBERS EXCLUSIVE) BAT-GARAGE Tour + BAT-SIGNAL Restoration (MEMBERS EXCLUSIVE) 12 мин How Creators Should Store and Back Up Their Content! How Creators Should Store and Back Up Their Content! 12 мин The Sketchiness in GREECE The Sketchiness in GREECE 26 мин $1 vs $100 LED Gadgets $1 vs $100 LED Gadgets 1 мин Apple Lost the AI Race Apple Lost the AI Race 8 мин Nuclear Egg (LATITY-015) Nuclear Egg (LATITY-015) 14 мин iPhone 18 Pro - Does variable aperture matter? iPhone 18 Pro - Does variable aperture matter? 1 мин This ZOOM is Insane! This ZOOM is Insane! 2 мин The Truth About the "Whoop Killer" The Truth About the "Whoop Killer" 18 мин The Honor Robot Phone is absolutely insane. The Honor Robot Phone is absolutely insane. 15 мин The Publishers Who Built Google Are Now Suing It #shorts The Publishers Who Built Google Are Now Suing It #shorts 2 мин The Lost Divers They Refused To Rescue: The Paria Accident | Fascinating Horror The Lost Divers They Refused To Rescue: The Paria Accident | Fascinating Horror 12 мин The Unlikely Rise of Corridor Crew The Unlikely Rise of Corridor Crew 83 мин The Horrifying "Dementor" Wasp | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Horrifying "Dementor" Wasp | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 мин 10 harsh YouTube lessons we wish we knew at 21 10 harsh YouTube lessons we wish we knew at 21 16 мин A Deadly Mistake When On Safari | Fascinating Horror A Deadly Mistake When On Safari | Fascinating Horror 11 мин These people walk towards mining disasters. These people walk towards mining disasters. 22 мин Insta360 Luna Pro: Who Needs the Ultra? Insta360 Luna Pro: Who Needs the Ultra? 11 мин

Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong

2025 25 мин

The problem with overconfidence. To help correct your overconfidence we have a tabletop game launching, Elements of Truth. You can pre-order the retail edition here: https://elementsoftruth.game/products/elements-of-truth If you’re looking for a molecular modelling kit, try Snatoms, a kit I invented where the atoms snap together magnetically - https://ve42.co/SnatomsV Sign up to the Veritasium newsletter for weekly science updates - https://ve42.co/Newsletter ▀▀▀ CHAPTERS: 0:00 The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias 3:01 How confident are you that you are right? 7:40 Why are people overconfident? 8:53 The Real Dunning-Kruger Effect Graph 10:22 How Your Brain Takes Shortcuts 14:02 How overconfidence is good for you 15:55 Nick Leeson Rogue Trader 17:17 The Importance of Feedback 18:45 How One of England's Oldest Banks Collapsed 20:41 How To Correct Overconfidence ▀▀▀ A big thanks to Professor Moore and Professor Fischhoff Thank you to everyone who played the game with us @hankschannel, @fryrsquared, @NileRed , @astrumspace, @MinutePhysics and @LookingGlassUniverse ▀▀▀ References: https://ve42.co/OverconfidenceRefs ▀▀▀ Special thanks to our Patreon supporters: Adam Foreman, Albert Wenger, Alex Porter, Alexander Tamas, Anton Ragin, armedtoe, Bertrand Serlet, Blake Byers, Bruce, Dave Kircher, David Johnston, David Tseng, Evgeny Skvortsov, Garrett Mueller, Gnare, gpoly, Hayden Christensen, Ibby Hadeed, Jeromy Johnson, Jon Jamison, Juan Benet, KeyWestr, Kyi, Lee Redden, Marinus Kuivenhoven, Matthias Wrobel, Meekay, meg noah, Michael Bush, Michael Krugman, Orlando Bassotto, Paul Peijzel, Richard Sundvall, Robert Oliveira, Sam Lutfi, Tj Steyn, Ubiquity Ventures & wolfee ▀▀▀ Writers: Gabe Strong & Derek Muller Producer & Director: Gabe Strong Editor: Max Tobin Additional Editors: James Stuart, Peter Nelson and Jack Saxon Camera Operator: Casper Mebius and Gabe Strong Animators: Alex Drakoulis & Fabio Albertelli Illustrator: Jakub Misiek Researchers: Naomi Dinmore Additional researchers: Callum Cuttle Thumbnail Designers: Abdallah Rabah, Ren Hurley & Ben Powell Production Team: Josh Pitt, Matthew Cavanagh & Anna Milkovic Executive Producers: Derek Muller & Zoe Heron Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images, Storyblocks Music from Epidemic Sound

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