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Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong 25 min iPhone Duo Hands On! iPhone Duo Hands On! 2 min UNDEAD DOGS UNDEAD DOGS 1 min COMPILATION: Fascinating Horror Shorts 31 - 60 | Fascinating Horror COMPILATION: Fascinating Horror Shorts 31 - 60 | Fascinating Horror 27 min HEX HEX 2 min Folding Folding 2 min Joi Joi 4 min THE SLOW BLADE THE SLOW BLADE 4 min Sony FX3 vs FX30: Can You Tell the Difference? Sony FX3 vs FX30: Can You Tell the Difference? 14 min The Rust Movie Set Accident | Fascinating Horror The Rust Movie Set Accident | Fascinating Horror 14 min Unboxing the XGIMI Titan Noir MAX... Unboxing the XGIMI Titan Noir MAX... 11 min The New “AIR” Gaming Smartphone The New “AIR” Gaming Smartphone 10 min Every Bear Grylls Impression by GeoWIzard Every Bear Grylls Impression by GeoWIzard 3 min A day in the life of a wildlife filmmaker 💁‍♀️ 🎥 #BigCats247 #Lions #Cheetahs #Leopards #Shorts A day in the life of a wildlife filmmaker 💁‍♀️ 🎥 #BigCats247 #Lions #Cheetahs #Leopards #Shorts 2 min 5 Ways to Connect AI Agents to Tools: From APIs to MCP 5 Ways to Connect AI Agents to Tools: From APIs to MCP 12 min Investigating AI Deepfakes Investigating AI Deepfakes 35 min 3 Big ChatGPT Updates You Need to Know 3 Big ChatGPT Updates You Need to Know 1 min living alone in Seoul | apartment updates, spring rest, IKEA haul & BTS concert living alone in Seoul | apartment updates, spring rest, IKEA haul & BTS concert 25 min Warframe Tau Gameplay Demo Reveal | TennoCon 2026 Warframe Tau Gameplay Demo Reveal | TennoCon 2026 30 min Is this the most famous camera of all time? Is this the most famous camera of all time? 2 min Overwatch Doctrine Gameplay Full Presentation Panel | BlizzCon 2026 Overwatch Doctrine Gameplay Full Presentation Panel | BlizzCon 2026 27 min Hybrid Power Systems! | Real Life Power Armor (Part 4/6) Hybrid Power Systems! | Real Life Power Armor (Part 4/6) 23 min DEFCON is Not What I Expected... DEFCON is Not What I Expected... 16 min Jeff bridges called me today. 🤯 Jeff bridges called me today. 🤯 3 min Current Doesn’t Run Inside? SKIN EFFECT! Current Doesn’t Run Inside? SKIN EFFECT! 14 min The asbestos problem is worse than we thought The asbestos problem is worse than we thought 55 min Watch This Lens Swap (SOUND ON 🔊) Watch This Lens Swap (SOUND ON 🔊) 2 min I tested Dream Tech with my Biggest Fans! I tested Dream Tech with my Biggest Fans! 15 min The #1 Worst Drink for Your Gut The #1 Worst Drink for Your Gut 2 min How to Film Cinematic Vlogs By Yourself! (with the Luna Ultra) How to Film Cinematic Vlogs By Yourself! (with the Luna Ultra) 13 min For The Love Of Football | NFL Netflix Gameday For The Love Of Football | NFL Netflix Gameday 3 min BETA SQUAD $10,000 CHALLENGE BETA SQUAD $10,000 CHALLENGE 26 min Best Cameras for YouTube Under $500 Best Cameras for YouTube Under $500 16 min Thomas, a tank engine, is not Thomas the Tank Engine. Thomas, a tank engine, is not Thomas the Tank Engine. 18 min Antique Steam Tractor Kills Five | Fascinating Horror Antique Steam Tractor Kills Five | Fascinating Horror 11 min Claude AI Failed 650 Times…Then Beat The Human Record Claude AI Failed 650 Times…Then Beat The Human Record 5 min How I wasted $52,000 in my Dream Smart Home How I wasted $52,000 in my Dream Smart Home 20 min Minecraft Was Missing One Brilliant Idea Minecraft Was Missing One Brilliant Idea 7 min What Would Linus Save? What Would Linus Save? 1 min Connecting Power Lines #science #experiment #funny #electrical Connecting Power Lines #science #experiment #funny #electrical 1 min The Steam-Cooled STEAM Machine The Steam-Cooled STEAM Machine 26 min Plasma Speaker DIY (AM Demodulator) Plasma Speaker DIY (AM Demodulator) 11 min World's most EXTREME alarm clocks! World's most EXTREME alarm clocks! 1 min The Deadly 36c/97f British Heatwave of 1976 | Fascinating Horror The Deadly 36c/97f British Heatwave of 1976 | Fascinating Horror 12 min Why do Human Feet Wash up on This Beach? | Fascinating Horror Shorts Why do Human Feet Wash up on This Beach? | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 min The Unsolved Mystery of The Oakville Blobs | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Unsolved Mystery of The Oakville Blobs | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 min The Biggest Aquarium Collapse in History | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Biggest Aquarium Collapse in History | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 min If you found candy with my name in it, here's why. If you found candy with my name in it, here's why. 18 min People are going to be angry about pylons. People are going to be angry about pylons. 8 min Better Instructions, Better AI Results Better Instructions, Better AI Results 1 min The Giant Rotting Pink Bunny in the Middle of Nowhere | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Giant Rotting Pink Bunny in the Middle of Nowhere | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 min

Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong

2025 25 min

The problem with overconfidence. To help correct your overconfidence we have a tabletop game launching, Elements of Truth. You can pre-order the retail edition here: https://elementsoftruth.game/products/elements-of-truth If you’re looking for a molecular modelling kit, try Snatoms, a kit I invented where the atoms snap together magnetically - https://ve42.co/SnatomsV Sign up to the Veritasium newsletter for weekly science updates - https://ve42.co/Newsletter ▀▀▀ CHAPTERS: 0:00 The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias 3:01 How confident are you that you are right? 7:40 Why are people overconfident? 8:53 The Real Dunning-Kruger Effect Graph 10:22 How Your Brain Takes Shortcuts 14:02 How overconfidence is good for you 15:55 Nick Leeson Rogue Trader 17:17 The Importance of Feedback 18:45 How One of England's Oldest Banks Collapsed 20:41 How To Correct Overconfidence ▀▀▀ A big thanks to Professor Moore and Professor Fischhoff Thank you to everyone who played the game with us @hankschannel, @fryrsquared, @NileRed , @astrumspace, @MinutePhysics and @LookingGlassUniverse ▀▀▀ References: https://ve42.co/OverconfidenceRefs ▀▀▀ Special thanks to our Patreon supporters: Adam Foreman, Albert Wenger, Alex Porter, Alexander Tamas, Anton Ragin, armedtoe, Bertrand Serlet, Blake Byers, Bruce, Dave Kircher, David Johnston, David Tseng, Evgeny Skvortsov, Garrett Mueller, Gnare, gpoly, Hayden Christensen, Ibby Hadeed, Jeromy Johnson, Jon Jamison, Juan Benet, KeyWestr, Kyi, Lee Redden, Marinus Kuivenhoven, Matthias Wrobel, Meekay, meg noah, Michael Bush, Michael Krugman, Orlando Bassotto, Paul Peijzel, Richard Sundvall, Robert Oliveira, Sam Lutfi, Tj Steyn, Ubiquity Ventures & wolfee ▀▀▀ Writers: Gabe Strong & Derek Muller Producer & Director: Gabe Strong Editor: Max Tobin Additional Editors: James Stuart, Peter Nelson and Jack Saxon Camera Operator: Casper Mebius and Gabe Strong Animators: Alex Drakoulis & Fabio Albertelli Illustrator: Jakub Misiek Researchers: Naomi Dinmore Additional researchers: Callum Cuttle Thumbnail Designers: Abdallah Rabah, Ren Hurley & Ben Powell Production Team: Josh Pitt, Matthew Cavanagh & Anna Milkovic Executive Producers: Derek Muller & Zoe Heron Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images, Storyblocks Music from Epidemic Sound

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