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Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong 25 min The Jagermeister Pool of Death | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Jagermeister Pool of Death | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 min I spent $12,000 on the THINNEST Tech I spent $12,000 on the THINNEST Tech 25 min TIMESINK TIMESINK 5 min BLINK BLINK 3 min The Unsolved Mystery of The Oakville Blobs | Fascinating Horror Shorts The Unsolved Mystery of The Oakville Blobs | Fascinating Horror Shorts 1 min iPhone 18 Pro/Duo Impressions: Mogged iPhone 18 Pro/Duo Impressions: Mogged 18 min Glass is glass Glass is glass 5 min How Tech Companies Lie to You. How Tech Companies Lie to You. 25 min $1 vs $100 LED Gadgets $1 vs $100 LED Gadgets 1 min SEGA on QD-OLED SEGA on QD-OLED 10 min This is the iPhone 18 Pro Max This is the iPhone 18 Pro Max 12 min Exposing a Romance Scammer Exposing a Romance Scammer 25 min Why OpenAI is calling for a ‘cyber defense surge.’ Plus: Find Evil! winners and TeamPCP losers Why OpenAI is calling for a ‘cyber defense surge.’ Plus: Find Evil! winners and TeamPCP losers 30 min AI News: An INSANE Week… Here’s What Matters AI News: An INSANE Week… Here’s What Matters 31 min How easy is it to steal $10,000 from a locked phone? How easy is it to steal $10,000 from a locked phone? 26 min Why won’t AI agents just follow the rules? Why won’t AI agents just follow the rules? 36 min Total Solar Eclipse from 92,000 Feet Total Solar Eclipse from 92,000 Feet 23 min Wildlife Of Japan & China In 4K | BBC Earth Wildlife Of Japan & China In 4K | BBC Earth 42 min We've Been Using The Wrong Science In Court For 50 years We've Been Using The Wrong Science In Court For 50 years 24 min We Are Not Professionals We Are Not Professionals 2 min We have no more excuses 😅😂 #AdobePartner @Adobe Video We have no more excuses 😅😂 #AdobePartner @Adobe Video 2 min I Transformed My Body in 90 days. I Transformed My Body in 90 days. 20 min Lightroom owns you Lightroom owns you 1 min How to start journaling when you don't know what to write How to start journaling when you don't know what to write 22 min What Happens If You Keep Slowing Down? What Happens If You Keep Slowing Down? 31 min My Daughter's Emotional 16th BIRTHDAY SURPRISE My Daughter's Emotional 16th BIRTHDAY SURPRISE 36 min Why The Taliban Are Begging The US To Come Back Why The Taliban Are Begging The US To Come Back 39 min The vulnpocalypse might not be so bad after all The vulnpocalypse might not be so bad after all 34 min I tested Dream Tech with my Biggest Fans! I tested Dream Tech with my Biggest Fans! 15 min Mr Bean Takes Home the WRONG Baby! 😱 #mrbean #newmrbean2026 Mr Bean Takes Home the WRONG Baby! 😱 #mrbean #newmrbean2026 1 min BETA SQUAD $10,000 CHALLENGE BETA SQUAD $10,000 CHALLENGE 26 min This Fence Completely Humiliates Mr Bean 😂 #mrbean #newmrbean2026 This Fence Completely Humiliates Mr Bean 😂 #mrbean #newmrbean2026 1 min I Promise you this is NOT Stupid I Promise you this is NOT Stupid 10 min The Luna Ultra Just Got Better! (Big Firmware Update!) The Luna Ultra Just Got Better! (Big Firmware Update!) 9 min I Cooled my PC with a SLUSHIE MACHINE I Cooled my PC with a SLUSHIE MACHINE 25 min I Tried All The Best (and Worst) Doorbells I Tried All The Best (and Worst) Doorbells 18 min YouTuber Merch Tier List YouTuber Merch Tier List 1 min I put the NEWEST CPU in the OLDEST Motherboard I put the NEWEST CPU in the OLDEST Motherboard 14 min Steam Frame Wireless Range Test Steam Frame Wireless Range Test 1 min Fix a Flat Tire with a FLUKE Acoustic Imager! #technology #equipment #electronics Fix a Flat Tire with a FLUKE Acoustic Imager! #technology #equipment #electronics 1 min 3 Things We Got Wrong About The Steam Machine 3 Things We Got Wrong About The Steam Machine 1 min Welding with Salt Water #experiment #fake #funny Welding with Salt Water #experiment #fake #funny 2 min The Small Difference Between Good and Bad Copywriting The Small Difference Between Good and Bad Copywriting 1 min Defenders Must Adapt Fast💨 Defenders Must Adapt Fast💨 1 min The Story Behind "The Day The Music Died" | Fascinating Horror The Story Behind "The Day The Music Died" | Fascinating Horror 12 min Markiplier Just Proved Hollywood Still Doesn’t Get the Internet Markiplier Just Proved Hollywood Still Doesn’t Get the Internet 38 min This 100-year-old ride must never change again. This 100-year-old ride must never change again. 17 min Insta360 X6 vs Luna Ultra: Best Vlogging Camera? Insta360 X6 vs Luna Ultra: Best Vlogging Camera? 20 min Kareem Addresses SubwayTakes Biggest Criticism Kareem Addresses SubwayTakes Biggest Criticism 1 min Mount Wilshire: The Volcano That Almost Destroyed LA | Fascinating Horror Mount Wilshire: The Volcano That Almost Destroyed LA | Fascinating Horror 11 min

Why People Are So Confident When They're Wrong

2025 25 min

The problem with overconfidence. To help correct your overconfidence we have a tabletop game launching, Elements of Truth. You can pre-order the retail edition here: https://elementsoftruth.game/products/elements-of-truth If you’re looking for a molecular modelling kit, try Snatoms, a kit I invented where the atoms snap together magnetically - https://ve42.co/SnatomsV Sign up to the Veritasium newsletter for weekly science updates - https://ve42.co/Newsletter ▀▀▀ CHAPTERS: 0:00 The Most Dangerous Cognitive Bias 3:01 How confident are you that you are right? 7:40 Why are people overconfident? 8:53 The Real Dunning-Kruger Effect Graph 10:22 How Your Brain Takes Shortcuts 14:02 How overconfidence is good for you 15:55 Nick Leeson Rogue Trader 17:17 The Importance of Feedback 18:45 How One of England's Oldest Banks Collapsed 20:41 How To Correct Overconfidence ▀▀▀ A big thanks to Professor Moore and Professor Fischhoff Thank you to everyone who played the game with us @hankschannel, @fryrsquared, @NileRed , @astrumspace, @MinutePhysics and @LookingGlassUniverse ▀▀▀ References: https://ve42.co/OverconfidenceRefs ▀▀▀ Special thanks to our Patreon supporters: Adam Foreman, Albert Wenger, Alex Porter, Alexander Tamas, Anton Ragin, armedtoe, Bertrand Serlet, Blake Byers, Bruce, Dave Kircher, David Johnston, David Tseng, Evgeny Skvortsov, Garrett Mueller, Gnare, gpoly, Hayden Christensen, Ibby Hadeed, Jeromy Johnson, Jon Jamison, Juan Benet, KeyWestr, Kyi, Lee Redden, Marinus Kuivenhoven, Matthias Wrobel, Meekay, meg noah, Michael Bush, Michael Krugman, Orlando Bassotto, Paul Peijzel, Richard Sundvall, Robert Oliveira, Sam Lutfi, Tj Steyn, Ubiquity Ventures & wolfee ▀▀▀ Writers: Gabe Strong & Derek Muller Producer & Director: Gabe Strong Editor: Max Tobin Additional Editors: James Stuart, Peter Nelson and Jack Saxon Camera Operator: Casper Mebius and Gabe Strong Animators: Alex Drakoulis & Fabio Albertelli Illustrator: Jakub Misiek Researchers: Naomi Dinmore Additional researchers: Callum Cuttle Thumbnail Designers: Abdallah Rabah, Ren Hurley & Ben Powell Production Team: Josh Pitt, Matthew Cavanagh & Anna Milkovic Executive Producers: Derek Muller & Zoe Heron Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images, Storyblocks Music from Epidemic Sound

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